Prognosis research: concepts, methods and clinical application  

3-day programme: 20th – 22nd June 2017

 All lectures will include 10-15 min question time at the end of the lecture.

 Day 1 – Tuesday 20th June 2017

09.00 – 09.30 Registration and Coffee
09.30 – 09.40 Welcome
09.40 – 10.10 Lecture 1: An introduction to PROGnosis RESearch Strategy (PROGRESS) (RR)
10.10 – 10.50 Lecture 2: Basic principles of prognosis research (GP)
10.50 – 11.15 Coffee
11.15 – 12.00 Practical i: Basic principles of prognosis research (facilitators: PC, GP, GM, KS, DvdW)
12.00 – 12.45 Lecture 3: Fundamental statistics for prognosis research (RR)
12.45 – 13.30 Lunch
13.30 – 14.00 Mad 30 minutes – part 1
14.00 – 15.00 Lecture 4: Overall prognosis research (DvdW)
15.00 – 15.30 Coffee
15.30 – 16.30 Practical ii: Overall prognosis research (facilitators: PC, GM, JE/DB, KS, DvdW)
16.30 – 17.30 Guest lecture 1: Prognosis research: Clinical and policy application  (AT)
17.30 – 18.00 Mad 30 minutes – part 2
19.30 Pub meal (Sneyd Arms)

Day 2 – Wednesday 21st June 2017 

Tea/coffee on arrival
09.00 – 10.00 Lecture 5: Prognostic factor research (RR)
10.00 – 11.00 Practical iii: Prognostic factor research (facilitators: PC, JE/DB, KM, RR, KS)
11.00 – 11.30 Coffee
11.30 – 12.30 Lecture 6: Prognostic model research (KM)
12.30 – 13.00 Mad 30 minutes – part 3
13.00 – 14.00 Lunch
14.00 – 15.00 Practical iv: Prognostic model research (facilitators: PC, AM, KM, JE/DB, KS)
15.00 – 16.00 Lecture 7: Key statistical concepts for prognostic model research (KS)
16.00 – 16.30 Coffee
16.30 – 17.30 Practical v: Prognostic model research – understanding statistical approaches & interpretation of performance measures (facilitators: PC, AM, JE/DB, RR, KS)
18.30 Course dinner at Keele Hall (drinks reception in the Great Hall followed by dinner in the Salvin room)

Day 3 – Thursday 22nd June 2017

Tea/coffee on arrival
09.00 – 10.00 Lecture 8: Stratified medicine research (DvdW)
10.00 – 11.00 Practical vi: Stratified medicine research (facilitators: PC, AM, JE/DB, KS, DvdW)
11.00 – 11.30 Coffee
11.30 – 12.30 Guest lecture 2: Clinical example of stratified care research (JH)
12.25 – 12.30 Introduction to practical vii
12.30 – 13.00 Lunch
13.00 – 14.30 Practical vii: Design a prognosis study – (facilitators: PC, AM, JE/DB, KS, DvdW)
14.30 – 15.30 Group presentations
15.30 – 16.30 Lecture 9: Systematic reviews of prognosis research (RR)
16.30 – 17.00 Closing session and award ceremony
18.00 Dinner – Keele Hall (Terrace) (Optional)

Dates for 2017 PROGRESS Summer School Announced



As increasing numbers of people worldwide live with one or more health problems, the study of prognosis has never been more important. Prognosis research provides information crucial to understanding, explaining and predicting future clinical outcomes in people with existing disease or health conditions. It provides pivotal evidence to inform outcome prediction, clinical decision making, design and evaluation of stratified medicine (stratified care), and all stages of translational research from molecular biology to health policy.

This 3-day summer school is designed to introduce the key components and uses of prognosis research to health professionals and researchers, including:

  • a framework of four different prognosis research questions: overall prognosis, prognostic factors, prognostic models, and stratified medicine
  • key principles of study design and methods
  • interpretation of statistical results about prognosis
  • the use of prognosis research evidence at multiple stages on the translational pathway toward improving patient outcome
  • the limitations of current prognosis research, and how the field can be improved

The course consists of a mixture of seminars and lectures from a core faculty of epidemiologists, statisticians and clinical researchers, group work and discussion sessions. Please note that no computer practicals are included with the focus instead on interpretation of statistical concepts and results of analyses. Basic knowledge of epidemiology and statistics is assumed. The course is founded on the prognosis research framework introduced by the PROGRESS partnership, described in a series of 4 articles published in BMJ/PLoS Medicine in February 2013. The PROGnosis RESearch Strategy partnership is a collaboration led by Keele University (Richard Riley, Peter Croft, Danielle van der Windt), UCL (Harry Hemingway, Aroon Hingorani), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Pablo Perel, Ian Roberts), Bart’s Heart Centre (Adam Timmis) and the University of Oxford (Douglas Altman).

The course is hosted by the Keele Centre for Prognosis Research and will take place on the rural campus of Keele University. The course fee will be £795 when registering before 31st March 2017 (including meals and 4 nights’ accommodation), and £875 after 1st April 2017.

To book a place on the course please click here or for further information please contact Sue Weir: s.weir@keele.ac.uk.

Further details on how to get to Keele University can be found at http://www.keele.ac.uk/findus/.